President Joe Biden will got a prime opportunity to lay out his case to the American people why he deserves another four years in office as he presents the annual State of the Union on Thursday.
Biden comes into the annual address off a strong showing on Super Tuesday as a rematch of the 2020 election against former President Donald Trump becomes closer to a reality. The State of the Union will serve as an unofficial kickoff to the general election campaign, which both frontrunners have been preparing for over the last several months as it became clear they would not face danger of losing the primary.
While Biden is riding momentum of cruising through the primary season, his reelection campaign is also facing resistance from voters and people within his own party as questions about his age, frustration over inflation, perceived failed promises and his handling of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Activists in states across the country have launched protest efforts to his candidacy, encouraging voters in some states to vote “uncommitted” or to write in another person due to frustrations over his handling of the war in Gaza, where Palestinian casualties have totaled over 30,000 since the fighting broke out. Both Minnesota and Michigan had a small but sizable portion of primary voters vote “uncommitted,” but Biden still had dominating victories.
But Thursday night’s speech offers him a chance to make his case to the public and to a combative and historically unproductive Congress on his vision for the country’s future.
The speech is taking place later than usual, as they are usually held in January. It comes at a politically beneficial time for Biden to lay out his case after the field for their parties’ nominations winnowed even further.
Fewer people have tuned in to see the president speak over the last decade, but it still is a high-profile event that millions of Americans will see at least parts of.
“It's a really important speech with very high stakes. I think it may be by his last opportunity with such a large audience,” said Aaron Kall, the director of debate at the University of Michigan. “Debates are kind of uncertain for the fall, so this may be the key the last guaranteed kind of big audience that the president has.”
The president has been at Camp David in Maryland for the last several days as he prepares for the big speech with his staff and advisers.
“You’ll hear me on Thursday,” told reporters on Tuesday when asked about the upcoming speech.
The White House has not said what is included in his address, but he is expected to talk about his high levels of job creation and overall strength of the economy under his watch, lay out policy proposals for the coming year and beyond, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, China, immigration and abortion. The only special guest that has been disclosed is Kate Cox, a Texas woman who was unable to get an abortion because of strict abortion limits in the state even though her pregnancy was endangering her health and her fetus had a fatal condition.
Biden may also draw attention to the combative and historically unproductive Congress, which is a day away from deadline to fund the federal government. Lawmakers avoided a partial shutdown taking place during the State of the Union with a one-week stopgap that expires on Friday.
The White House has faced resistance from the Republican-led House on bipartisan Senate bills providing military aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan along with new funding and restrictions around the border, which Biden and Democrats have highlighted as the general election has come into focus. Biden faced a rowdy audience during 2022’s State of the Union, being interrupted by Reps. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., and Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and could face one again this year as the slim GOP majority has impeached his secretary of Homeland Security and is actively pursuing an inquiry against him. He was also interrupted last year while talking about Social Security and Medicare and accusing Republicans of trying to enact cuts to the popular entitlement programs.
“These speeches are tough because he's making an audience directly there to people in Congress that he needs to vote for these important issues, but also he's trying to persuade tens of millions people that are watching it at home,” Kall said. “To both the in-person audience and then those from afar, you want to make sure it comes off well and it's packaged well for both.”
Another challenge for Biden will be to come away from the speech looking vigorous and in command as he faces questions from voters about whether he has the stamina and mental fitness to serve another four-year term. A new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found more than 60% of Americans say they are not very or not at all confident in Biden's mental capability to serve effectively as president.
Slip-ups and gaffes that he is known for making have become more of a pressure point for his campaign and presidency as questions about his age linger and a special counsel report that cleared him of facing criminal charges for his handling of classified documents was overshadowed by unflattering descriptions of his memory.
“Winning the stage means he looks absolutely in possession of himself, he holds the podium with strength. He looks at the audience and he just he conveys a sense of vigor. That would look like success,” said Ray La Raja, a political science professor and co-director of the UMass poll.
Those concerns are shared by voters in both parties, though Democrats have been significantly more likely to say they trust his mental fitness and are confident in his ability to lead.
Biden will also have to toe the line of rallying parts of the Democratic party that are skeptical of him serving another term and shifting to a more moderate political agenda to appeal to voters in a general election. Independents and moderate voters are a crucial voting bloc in the upcoming election that is certain to be decided in a few key swing states that were narrowly split in the 2020 election.
He is likely to continue to tout the bipartisan achievements from the beginning of his presidency that are starting to result in projects and improvements from the chips and infrastructure bills. Biden has continually called on Congress to work in a bipartisan manner to pass legislation targeting the central themes of the upcoming election like immigration, the economy and preserving American democracy.
“He's got to do a balance here,” La Raja said. “He wants to demonstrate to wavering Democrats that he's vigorous, so he's got to look vigorous and obviously likable and remind them of all he’s done that Democrats like. At the same time, though, he needs to pivot a little bit more towards the middle.”
After Biden’s speech, Republicans will present a rebuttal where they will tell voters their party’s vision for guiding the U.S. into the future. Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., will deliver the GOP response afterwards. It is also possible former President Donald Trump will respond to Biden’s speech now that their rematch is nearly clinched.